First Patriots Possession of Both Halves: Keep an eye on how the
Patriots offense fares the first time they touch the ball in each half. They led
the league in scoring on their first possession of the game with 71 points
during the regular season, putting points on the scoreboard 13 times in their 16
opportunities. They scored three rushing touchdowns, five passing touchdowns and
converted all five of their field goal attempts. If the Giants can keep
them off the board on their first possession, that would be a huge
accomplishment since New York was ranked 28th in the league for keeping their
opponent off the scoreboard in that situation. And in the second half, they
weren't much better, ranked 25th in preventing points the first time their
opponent got the ball in the second half. Those will be two key possessions for
both teams.
Third-and-short: When New England's offense needs less than four yards to move the chains on
third down, they succeed 71.9 percent of the time. The Giants can slightly
improve their odds of stopping the Patriots in these situations by adding extra
defensive back help and challenging the Patriots to run. New England has a 10
percent lower first-down conversion rate on third-and-short when they run the
ball instead of throwing it.
Giants defensive end Michael Strahan smothers Buccaneers quarterback Jeff Garcia during playoff action.
Doug Benc/Getty Images |
Pass Pressure: One of the most important battles will be the
defensive pass rush of the Giants, which led the league with 53 sacks, against a
New England offensive line that allowed just 21 sacks to rank fifth-best in
protecting their quarterback. As a result of so few yards lost through sacks —
in addition to their potent passing attack — the Patriots were the
league's finest at net passing yards per game, averaging 295.7 yards. But the
Giants defense is no slouch in this area, finishing 11th-best in net passing yards
allowed, averaging just 207.3 per game. And keep an eye on New York's success
against the pass on second down. They were the eighth best pass defense in the
league on second down, registering 14 sacks, eight interceptions, and holding
the opposing passer to a 76.9 passer rating. If they struggle to keep Patriots
quarterback Tom Brady in check on second-down plays, they could be in for a long
evening.
The Power of Turnovers: New England is just plain stingy when it comes to carelessly giving away the
football. Their league-low 15 giveaways — six fumbles and nine
interceptions — only resulted in 35 points for their opponents with seven
touchdowns scored following the turnovers. But if you see the Giants defense
score a touchdown off of a fumble recovery or an interception, remember this
point: New York is 4-0 this season when their defense has accomplished that
feat.
Three-and-Out: This will be an important trend to note as the
game wears on. New England was forced to punt after just three offensive plays a
league-low 15.6 percent of time. But guess what? The Giants were second-best in
the league at forcing their opponents to punt away the ball after just three
downs. Only the Chicago Bears had a better percentage than New York's 26.4
percent in this category. If the Giants can send Tom Brady back to the bench at
least three times after just three plays, chalk up another potential
game-winning advantage for the Giants.
The Long Ball: New England's offense has a big advantage in the
long-ball game based on their past performance this season and when you look at
New York's struggles defending it all year. The Patriots' 57 completions of 20
yards or more — including 16 for touchdowns — was second in the
league only to the Dallas Cowboys. And they averaged 33.4 yards per pass on
those completions. That's bad news for New York, who allowed a 29.6 completion
rate on long passes in 2007, including 7 touchdown passes. And the opposing
quarterbacks averaged an 83.1 passer rating against them when throwing the ball
deep, putting the Giants near the bottom of the league in that category at 25th.
Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker battles for yards after the catch in Week 17 against the Giants.
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images |
Passing on first downs: The Patriots were the most efficient offense in the league on first down,
moving the ball four yards or more 53.7 percent of the time. And that made them
all the more unpredictable on second downs since a run or pass play was equally
viable with just six yards or less needed over the next two plays. New York excelled at minimizing the pass on first
down, allowing their opponents to throw for four yards or more on first down
just just 48.1 percent of the time, seventh-best in the league. Keep an eye on
how often the Patriots are able to grab at least four yards on a first-down pass
play
as this is a key battle for both teams.
Third-down defense: The Giants were the fifth- best defense in the
league on third downs, holding their opponents to a third- down conversion rate
of just 34.6 percent. New York can increase their odds of stopping a drive by
making sure the Patriots need more than six yards on third down since they
allowed their opponents to convert just 24.6 percent of those opportunities,
11th best in the league. And when they were defending a third down play where at
least 10 yards were needed, opposing offenses only moved the chains 15.2 percent
of the time, earning the Giants an eighth-best ranking in the league.
Closing Minutes: No one was better at closing out the first half with
points than New England. They put together ten scoring drives right before the
first 30-minutes of play ended, posting eight touchdowns and two field goals.
And they were fourth in closing out the game with a scoring drive, scoring four
touchdowns even though they rarely needed a late score. But the Giants will
provide a strong challenge for New England in this area. They were eighth-best at keeping
their opponent from scoring at the end of the halves, yielding just 29 points in
the first half, and 13 points in the second half. But the best strategy for the
Giants to limit the Patriots from mounting a point-scoring drive to end either
half is to make sure they are in possession of the ball in that situation —
not Tom Brady & Co.
Ed Thompson's player interviews and NFL features
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