With all of the information available in the press, over the internet, in
periodicals and on both television and radio, it is not a particularly difficult
task for any draft enthusiast, writer — or for that matter a polar bear —
to put
together a credible prediction as to which players will be selected in the first
round of the upcoming NFL draft.
When I began my career with the Chicago Bears back in 1972, the late Carl
Marasco and his brother Pete were the first to publish their list of the top
players available in the upcoming draft. Carl went on to work with the Bears
while Pete, an attorney, briefly worked in the CFL and later in personnel for
the Jets.
They were quickly followed by Palmer Hughes, a former New York school teacher, the late Joel
Buchsbaum, a reclusive
former dietitian who died suddenly back in 2002, and Jerry Jones, a real life
pharmacist who published "The Drugstore
List."
The most well known of this new breed of internet scouts is ESPN's Mel Kiper
Jr., a likeable, fast-talking individual who was once described by veteran
Bengals scout Bill Tobin as being about as qualified as his mailman to evaluate
football talent. I'm sure it was an embarrassing moment for Mel, but in the end
he had the last laugh, by today commanding a salary that may well be four to
five times greater then the top professional scouts in the game. I'm not certain he knows the difference between "cloud coverage" and the barometric pressure outside his suburban Baltimore home, but as long as those checks clear on the first and fifteenth and the fans are satisfied, what does it matter?
Today there are literally hundred of these scouting wannabes hocking
their publications online, on the newsstands or in associations with the major
sports networks. Virtually none have ever done the necessary grunt work of viewing
countless hours of film, attending practices, questioning coaches, trainers,
interviewing players and —after the season — physically, mentally, and physiologically
testing these athletes. And yet many of these draftniks are actually referred to
by many media sources as experts.
 Penn State QB Anthony Morelli sprints away from a Michigan State defender. AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster |
No, I'm afraid the real experts are actually people like Jerry Shay, Alonzo Highsmith, Phil Neri,
Steve Verderosa, Marty Barrett, Dick Daniels, Jerry Hardaway, Tom Modrak, Dave
Razzano and the countless other overworked, under-appreciated scouts toiling in
relative obscurity for teams throughout the country.
Over the years, I have had the opportunity to come in contact with some
amateur draft enthusiasts who literally blew me away with their knowledge and
instincts for evaluating football talent. The best of these was without question
former Emmy-winning actor Bradford Dillman. Dillman, who became a fixture in the
49ers draft room during their glory years, took his film down-time hobby to
another level, and over the years actually became a confidant of Hall of Fame
coach Bill Walsh.
That being said, other draftniks have had an impact on the pro game. Back in
2002, after four corners were drafted in the first round, two Rams officials asked
me if I would have any problem drafting Travis Fisher, a relatively unknown
corner from Central Florida originally slotted as a third-round selection with
our second-round pick. I told them I didn't think he would be available on our
third selection and if we truly wanted him, we needed to draft him a round
sooner.
Over the years I have seen numerous occasions where scouts and coaches have
disagreed with potential selections, but the answer I received regarding Fisher was truly one for the ages.
He said (while holding a stack of seventy-five to a hundred sheets of paper),
"Tom, I have read
your reports, viewed his touch tape, and compared his workout numbers to all of
the other corners in this year's draft. But the problem I have with taking him is
that his
name does not appear in any of these mock drafts as a potential second-round
selection." Fortunately, Mike Martz still had the final say in all personnel
matters and pulled the trigger on Fisher, who started for five seasons
with the Rams before signing with the Detroit Lions as a free agent in 2007
So next week, I will join the legion of experts and offer my assessment on
the first round. But I thought before doing so, I would first go out on a limb
and give my opinion on who might be selected in this year's seventh round.
A former scouting colleague — without even viewing my selections —
has wagered me
a steak dinner at a restaurant of my choice — that I won't be able to name two of
the 45 potential seventh-round selections. And for each correct prediction
over two, he has promised an additional steak dinner.
For the record, in my first
attempt in 2007 I was able to hit on twelve seventh-round selections — a far cry
from the twenty-eight of thirty-two first-round hits. But if I can duplicate that
effort, it would be good enough to keep me on the free-meal gravy train for a
very long time.
| 1-208 |
Miami |
Joshua Johnson |
QB |
San Diego |
| Is
a good athlete, and although a long-term project, is certainly worth the
gamble in round number seven. |
| 2-209 |
Minnesota |
Nate Robinson |
DT |
Akron |
| Top prep
defensive line prospect with strong hands, athletic ability and pop, but
has never played to his potential. |
| 3-210 |
Kansas City |
Anthony Morelli |
QB |
Penn St |
| Has top-round
physical skills, but his career has been characterized by inconsistencies. |
| 4-211 |
NY Jets |
Matt Caddell |
WR |
Alabama |
| Impressed me
with his play in '07. Is a smart, workman-like player with good hands and more
speed than advertised. |
| 5-212 |
Atlanta |
Jason Jones |
DE |
E. Michigan |
| Former TE who
was moved to DT in '06. Flashed during Senior Bowl workouts.
Falcons like his playing character. |
| 6-213 |
Oakland |
Alex Hall |
DE |
St. Augustine |
| Potential
high reward project. Last Raider from this school was pass rush specialist
Isaac Lassiter. |
| 7-214 |
San Francisco |
Thomas Williams |
MLB |
USC |
| Steady inside
backer and special teams player who should add depth to the 49ers
defensive unit. |
| 8-215 |
Baltimore |
Dowayne Davis |
CB |
Syracuse |
| Smart and
experienced player who has played both corner and safety.
Good special teams potential |
| 9-216 |
Detroit |
Chad Simpson |
RB |
Morgan St. |
| Undersized
South Florida transfer who showed run skills, speed, strength and
balance. Might have some return potential. |
| 10-217 |
St. Louis |
Pierre Garcon |
WR |
Mount Union |
| Small-college
star with the physical qualities, speed, hands and return skills you look
for in a third or fourth receiver. |
| 11-218 |
New Orleans |
Jeremy Geathers |
DE |
UNLV |
| The Saints
drafted his dad with their first selection and twenty-four years later
they select Jeremy with their last. |
| 12-219 |
Buffalo |
Hilee Taylor |
DE |
N. Carolina |
| Special-situation,
undersized nickel rusher with speed and a closing burst.
Must improve a good deal versus the run. |
| 13-220 |
Denver |
Marcus Smith |
WR |
New Mexico |
| Built like a
RB and was productive in the under zones.
Lacks top speed and red zone production was marginal. |
| 14-221 |
Carolina |
William Hayes |
DE |
Winston-Salem St. |
| Impressive
from an athletic standpoint. Could well be the class of this season's
seventh-round. prospects. |
| 15-222 |
Chicago |
Colt Brennan |
QB |
Hawaii |
| No disputing
his numbers, but has a questionable arm and lots of mechanical things that
will need to be fixed. |
| 16-223 |
Houston |
Stanford Kegler |
LB |
Purdue |
| Texans look
for Kegler to provide depth for what is fast becoming one of the league's
top defenses. |
| 17-224 |
Buffalo |
Curtis Johnson |
DE |
Clark-Atlanta |
| Young nickel
rusher. You have to love his
intensity, range and ability to rush the passer. |
| 18-225 |
Arizona |
Husain Abdullah |
S |
Washington St. |
| Brother of
Broncos' Hamza. An experienced hand who should add depth while
contributing on special teams quickly. |
| 19-226 |
Oakland |
Steve Korte |
RB |
LSU (Former) |
| Has virtually
no playing production, but may be one of the most impressive athletes in
this year's draft. |
| 20-227 |
Denver |
Jonathon Goff |
MLB |
Vanderbilt |
| Is both a
smart and experienced hand who was particularly effective in pass
coverage. |
| 21-228 |
Washington |
Ervin Baldwin |
DE |
Michigan St. |
| I love this
undersized, potential nickel rusher's energy, effort and ability as a
speed rusher. |
| 22-229 |
Tennessee |
Devin Clark |
OG |
New Mexico |
| College
tackle who appears better-suited to play inside.
A mass guy who can bend his knees and get movement. |
| 23-230 |
Philadelphia |
Larry Grant |
LB |
Ohio St. |
| A top JC LB
prospect who never lived up to his advanced billing at Ohio State, but has
shown the athletic ability to develop. |
| 24-231 |
Cleveland |
Jeremy Zuttah |
OG |
Rutgers |
| Far better
athlete then player at this stage, but one should not give up on big
people too quickly. |
| 25-232 |
Atlanta |
Adrian Arrington |
WR |
Michigan |
| The Falcons
like his size and potential as an inside receiver and special team player. |
| 26-233 |
Seattle |
Walter Scott |
OG |
Kentucky |
| A former TE
who has only been a one-year starter at guard. Lacks strength, but the
Seahawks like his athletic ability and intangibles. |
| 27-234 |
San Diego |
Dennis Keyes |
S |
UCLA |
| Doesn't have
top speed, but the Chargers like his size, savvy, range, playing
experience and ball skills. |
| 28-235 |
Dallas |
Johnny Dingle |
DE |
West Virginia |
| Undersized,
one-dimensional player (pass rusher), who is going to have to improve run
defending skills to have a chance. |
| 29-236 |
Indianapolis |
Davone Bess |
WR |
Hawaii |
| Undersized
guy who doesn't have top speed, but is tough, instinctive and aware.
Has really matured as a college athlete. |
| 30-237 |
Green Bay |
Darrell Strong |
TE |
Pittsburgh |
| Prep QB and
WR. Has excellent size and athletic skills, but has never been a full-time
regular. Improved blocker and receiver in '07. |
| 31-238 |
New England |
Eric Young |
OG |
Tennessee |
| Big man who
has all the athletic ability and size you look for. Is developmental in
terms of playing skills. |
| 32-239 |
Kansas City |
Jason Rivers |
WR |
Hawaii |
| Has been
highly productive, but his lack of vertical speed has always been a
limiting factor. |
33-240
(Comp) |
Baltimore |
Chris Horton |
S |
UCLA |
| The heart and
soul of UCLA's defense the past three season, the Ravens like his
run-stopping and special teams potential. |
34-241
(Comp) |
Carolina |
Duane Brown |
OT |
Virginia Tech |
| Big, athletic
prospect with good feet and body balance who will need to improve his core
strength and finishing skills. |
35-242
(Comp) |
Washington |
Kevin Robinson |
WR |
Utah St |
| One of the
top kick and punt returners in the country. Robinson lacks top speed but
has a chance to factor as a fourth or fifth WR. |
36-243
(Comp) |
Chicago |
Zackary Bowman |
CB |
Nebraska |
| Might still
be a year away from returning from a serious knee injury, but has too much
size and speed not to consider here. |
37-244
(Comp) |
Cincinnati |
Angelo Craig |
DE |
Cincinnati |
| Has moved
around a lot, but may have found a home as a developing pass rusher.
Bengals like this local's upside. |
38-245
(Comp) |
Miami |
Joseph Fields |
S |
Syracuse |
| Starting QB
as a freshman who, although lacking in practical playing experience, the
Dolphins like due to his intelligence and athletic ability. |
39-246
(Comp) |
Cincinnati |
Chase Ortiz |
DE |
TCU |
| 3-4
backer prospect who played hard and fast.
Doesn't have the hips and/or change of direction skills to project
to linebacker. |
40-247
(Comp) |
Chicago |
Paul Raymond |
WR |
Brown |
| Is small in
stature, but rare speed, quickness and return potential enhance his
overall playing potential. |
41-248
(Comp) |
Chicago |
Eric Foster |
DT |
Rutgers |
| Is
undersized, but is another player with quickness and range.
Bears like his hand use and playing leverage. |
42-249
(Comp) |
Washington |
Kevin O'Connell |
QB |
San Diego St. |
| The Redskins
feel this athletic big man over time can transform from strong arm thrower
into a polished passer. |
43-250
(Comp) |
Carolina |
Louis Holmes |
DE |
Arizona |
| Top JC player
recruit in the country has the size and athletic ability , but has never
shown either the maturity and or consistency. |
44-251
(Comp) |
Buffalo |
Xavier Carter |
WR |
LSU (Former) |
| The third
fastest man ever at 200 meters. Top prep player who was used primarily as
a kickoff return man as a freshman and sophomore. |
45-252
(Comp) |
St. Louis |
Vince Gliatta |
S |
Youngstown St. |
| Mr
Irrelevant. A former QB and Penn State transfer who showed
playing savvy, instincts and toughness. |