Click here to visit WhatIfSports.com
Carolina Panthers Preview
New Orleans Saints Preview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
Atlanta Falcons Preview
Since the Panthers last won this division in 2003, the other three teams have finished on top. According to the
rotation, 2007 should have been the Panthers' year, but injuries kept Carolina from finishing above .500. This is
a do-or-die year. We are going with the "do." The Panthers average 25.7 points per game (#7 in the NFL) and allow
20.5 points (#7) against a schedule featuring just five games against 2007 playoff teams.
Absolute Record: 13-3
Most Significant Newcomer: Jonathan Stewart, RB - Just when DeAngelo Williams thought he would get his
chance to be the man, Carolina drafted a bigger, stronger, NFL-ready version of him in the first round. Williams
is probably capable of fulfilling the starting role for an NFL team, but he will be great again in the two-back
system. Stewart is a monster who can even catch the ball and return kicks if needed. The only real concern with
him is a foot injury, yet the Panthers' doctor performed his surgery. Carolina added some great pieces to its
defense, yet we are going with the dynamic rookie who we already picked as the league's best for 2008.
Biggest Strength: The Schedule - We could say it about every team in this division for 2008. They all
get to play the Bears, Chiefs, Lions and Raiders, not to mention that three of them play the Falcons twice. The
middle of this schedule - Week 4 through Week 15 - should allow this team to get on a big roll. They will
cut their teeth at San Diego and at Minnesota, but then it is smooth sailing until a trip to face the Giants. By
then, they could easily be 12-2 and may not even need that game.
Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Game - This is an injury concern far more than a talent concern.
Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith and new #2 wide receiver D.J. Hackett all have histories of missing games or playing at far less
than 100%. When healthy and at the peaks these players have shown over the years, this may actually be a
strength. It's just too much of a concern to gloss over.
Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Gary Barnidge, TE - Usually when Mel Kiper Jr. loves a guy, we stay away
from him. Too much draft analysis is based on "measureables" (40-yard dash time, bench press, height, weight, etc.) when collegiate productivity (with strength of
opponent considered) should be much more of a factor. Barnidge is one of those ultra-productive college players.
He is a tall target with great hands who presents an upgrade over Jeff King in his ability to stretch the middle
of the field and even get yards after the catch.
Closest Game: @ Minnesota (Week 3) - This is one of those "cut your teeth" games, but Carolina still
has a shot of winning. After this, the games don't really get close.
Fantasy Notables: Jake Delhomme (16) 2,920 yards, 22 TDs, 11 INTs; Jonathan Stewart (21) 1,369 total
yards, 11 TDs; DeAngelo Williams (29) 1,108 total yards, 9 TDs; Steve Smith (12) 92 receptions, 1,136 yards, 8
TDs; D.J. Hackett (44) 53 receptions, 714 yards, 5 TDs; Gary Barnidge (26) 31 receptions, 323 yards, 3 TDs; John Kasay (6) 43/43 XPs, 29/34 FGs
Projected 2008 Results:
| Week | Opponent | Win% | Avg Score |
|---|
| 1 | @San Diego Chargers | 39 | 18-26 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 75 | 30-17 |
| 3 | @Minnesota Vikings | 45 | 19-28 |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | 75 | 33-18 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 81 | 33-17 |
| 6 | @Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 56 | 23-21 |
| 7 | New Orleans Saints | 63 | 27-19 |
| 8 | Arizona Cardinals | 61 | 27-19 |
| 10 | @Oakland Raiders | 83 | 28-18 |
| 11 | Detroit Lions | 73 | 29-17 |
| 12 | @Atlanta Falcons | 82 | 28-19 |
| 13 | @Green Bay Packers | 57 | 25-25 |
| 14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 69 | 26-15 |
| 15 | Denver Broncos | 63 | 29-20 |
| 16 | @New York Giants | 33 | 15-27 |
| 17 | @New Orleans Saints | 57 | 23-21 |
Did you know that Drew Brees set a single-season NFL record for passing attempts in 2007? That speaks far more to the
injury issues in the running game than the fact that the air attack was that prolific. The offense and defense look a
little better in 2008. Health concerns and other uncertainties keep this team at .500. The Saints average 23.7
points per game (#16) and allow 23.8 points (#18) against a schedule featuring just four games against 2007
playoff teams.
Absolute Record: 7-9
Most Significant Newcomer: Sedrick Ellis, DT - This analysis actually likes several (Tracy Porter, DeMario Pressley and Taylor Mehlhaff) of those drafted by New Orleans. We also like the moves to land
Jonathan Vilma and Randall Gay. But, Ellis is the biggest get for the Saints leading into 2008. He is a rare
talent, and it is a total fluke that another once-every-ten-years type of defensive tackle prospect showed up in the
same year (Glenn Dorsey). Ellis can stuff the run, take on a double team and get after the quarterback. In the
simulated season, he makes 45 tackles and five sacks.
Biggest Strength: Drew Brees - Brees' arm strength, durability and accuracy are uncanny. Reggie Bush
and Marques Colston may have great talent, but it is Brees who gets the most out of their abilities and makes
productive players out of guys like Devery Henderson, Lance Moore and David Patten. Having some semblance of a
running game in 2008 should make this passing game look a lot more like 2006. It also helps that this offensive
line keeps Brees upright (they gave up the fewest sacks in the league in 2007, despite leading the league in
attempts).
Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Defense - We like the fact that the Saints addressed this by
signing Randall Gay and drafting Tracy Porter. That's not enough to overcome a historically bad secondary. In
2007, the Saints gave up an astonishing 7.87 yards-per-attempt through the air. They may not do that again in
2008, but they are still one of the worst few passing defenses in the league.
Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Taylor Mehlhaff, K - When teams draft kickers, it is with the intent to play
them that season. Mehlhaff grades as the best kicker available in the draft. He has a big leg and is accurate
enough. If the Saints return to their high-flying ways of 2006, Mehlhaff could match Mason Crosby's rookie
numbers (Crosby in 2007 - 31 FGM, 48 XPM). Outside of Mehlhaff, there are several options here, yet too many question marks around them. Robert Meachem, Pierre Thomas or any tight end on the roster were tempting to choose.
Closest Game: San Francisco (Week 4) - It may sound odd, but if the Saints want to prove they have
significantly improved their secondary, they will have to show it here. With Mike Martz calling the shots, the
49ers will air it out and test New Orleans.
Fantasy Notables: Drew Brees (4) 3,944 yards, 25 TDs, 12 INTs; Reggie Bush (14) 1,501 total yards, 12
TDs; Marques Colston (19) 69 receptions, 1,020 yards, 6 TDs; Eric Johnson (30) 35 receptions, 322 yards, 2 TDs;
Taylor Mehlhaff (20) 41/42 XPs, 24/30 FGs
Projected 2008 Results:
| Week | Opponent | Win% | Avg Score |
|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 45 | 21-22 |
| 2 | @Washington Redskins | 39 | 17-27 |
| 3 | @Denver Broncos | 55 | 26-24 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 47 | 24-26 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 26 | 18-25 |
| 6 | Oakland Raiders | 57 | 31-22 |
| 7 | @Carolina Panthers | 35 | 19-27 |
| 8 | San Diego Chargers | 34 | 23-29 |
| 10 | @Atlanta Falcons | 80 | 29-22 |
| 11 | @Kansas City Chiefs | 79 | 29-21 |
| 12 | Green Bay Packers | 45 | 24-26 |
| 13 | @Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 56 | 23-22 |
| 14 | Atlanta Falcons | 67 | 29-17 |
| 15 | @Chicago Bears | 43 | 20-25 |
| 16 | @Detroit Lions | 54 | 26-25 |
| 17 | Carolina Panthers | 43 | 21-23 |
Someone may want to let the Buccaneers know that following the Chicago Bears' current blueprint will not lead to
success. It's kind of eerie. Both teams have confusing quarterback situations, aging defenses with some name
players, young running backs who no one can count on, recycled wide receivers and way too many tight ends. They
even picked up Brian Griese (again). And Tampa Bay has a horrible special teams. Jeff Garcia is the saving grace
here. If he plays all year, the team is not too far from 2007. Still, we would not say that the future is bright
(for either team). The Buccaneers average 21.7 points per game (#21) and allow 22.2 points (#14) against a
schedule featuring just four games against 2007 playoff teams.
Absolute Record: 7-9
Most Significant Newcomer: Jeff Faine, C - The offensive line took some big strides in 2007 and could
now rank among the top ten in the league with the additions of Jeff Faine and athletic, rookie guard Jeremy Zuttah.
Biggest Strength: Pass Defense - Tampa added a play-making corner in Aqib Talib to a solid secondary
that allowed less than six yards-per-attempt passing in 2007. That number will go up a little, but it will be
more than offset by the development of the pass rush - namely Gaines Adams - and guys like Talib and Tanard Jackson, who can pick the ball off. If 11 tight ends could play at the same time, we would have brought them up
here. The Buccaneers let Anthony Becht go, and they still have six tight ends on the roster - five of which have
starting experience.
Most Exploitable Weakness: Question Marks - Obviously, every team has these, but few have more than
Tampa Bay. There is uncertainty at every offensive skill position. What do the Buccaneers have planned at
quarterback, receiver and running back? How will injuries affect those decisions? Do rookies Dexter Jackson, Josh Johnson or Cory Boyd have a place on this roster? At what point does the team enter the dreaded rebuilding mode?
The Buccaneers seem to be stuck somewhere between a smart, veteran football team and a young, athletic squad (not in a good way). We had to answer all of these questions for this analysis, yet that does not mean we are
sold on what they are going to do or what we had them do.
Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Earnest Graham, RB - He is the assumed starter, but we still have him valued
higher than most. In 14 starts, we have Graham averaging 101 total yards per game and scoring a total of ten
touchdowns.
Closest Game: @ New Orleans (Week 1) - Close Week 1 games can be great. This team should learn a lot
from this matchup whether they win or lose. And we should learn a lot more about the answers to the questions
above at that time as well.
Fantasy Notables: Jeff Garcia (20) 2,429 yards, 18 TDs, 8 INTs; Earnest Graham (22) 1,408 total yards,
10 TDs; Joey Galloway (25) 57 receptions, 948 yards, 6 TDs; Ben Troupe (24) 25 receptions, 324 yards, 3 TDs; Alex Smith (29) 31 receptions, 324 yards, 2 TDs; Matt Bryant (31) 39/39 XPs, 20/23 FGs
Projected 2008 Results:
| Week | Opponent | Win% | Avg Score |
|---|
| 1 | @New Orleans Saints | 55 | 22-21 |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 69 | 32-20 |
| 3 | @Chicago Bears | 71 | 24-20 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 43 | 20-21 |
| 5 | @Denver Broncos | 55 | 27-25 |
| 6 | Carolina Panthers | 44 | 21-23 |
| 7 | Seattle Seahawks | 27 | 15-19 |
| 8 | @Dallas Cowboys | 19 | 16-31 |
| 9 | @Kansas City Chiefs | 75 | 25-17 |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | 17 | 16-26 |
| 12 | @Detroit Lions | 64 | 24-21 |
| 13 | New Orleans Saints | 43 | 22-23 |
| 14 | @Carolina Panthers | 31 | 15-26 |
| 15 | @Atlanta Falcons | 71 | 26-20 |
| 16 | San Diego Chargers | 23 | 17-25 |
| 17 | Oakland Raiders | 61 | 27-19 |
The Falcons are in a big hole, and it really is not their fault. That being said, putting all of the team's eggs
in the basket of a player who completed fewer than 60% of his passes and threw 19 interceptions (654 attempts) in
college is their fault. It could put them them in a hole for a much longer time. Obviously, we are not sold on
Matt Ryan. For just about everyone's sake we could be wrong. The Falcons average 20.3 points per game (#27) and
allow 28.9 points (#30) against a schedule featuring four games against 2007 playoff teams.
Absolute Record: 1-15
Most Significant Newcomer: Michael Turner, RB - The "burner" gets his shot. We expect a season like the first
for Chester Taylor and Lamont Jordan after they went from backups to starters on new teams.
Turner should have no problem racking up yards on the ground; however, he only has 11 career receptions so he may
not be an everyday back. The projections give him 1,312 yards on the ground on 291 carries. Jerious Norwood stays
excellent as a third-down back and second-wave behind Turner, totaling 945 yards from scrimmage.
Biggest Strength: Running Game - One could have said this two years ago without hesitation, yet for
very different reasons. The two players just highlighted will lead the way for the ground game and the entire
offense. The offensive line is not great, but a new coaching staff with roots in a two-running back system for
the Jaguars should help get everyone on the same page.
Most Exploitable Weakness: Everything Else - It's actually not that this team is the worst in the
league in anything; it's that they are below-average in everything but the running game. If the Falcons choose to
go with Matt Ryan in Week 1, then the passing game becomes a huge weakness and among the bottom few in the
league.
Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Laurent Robinson, WR - It is rare that any of the Falcons' receivers get
any love from media - and even then, it's usually for Roddy White. Quietly, Laurent Robinson asserted himself
as a potential #2 to White with 37 catches in 2007. Michael Jenkins has bad yards-per-catch numbers for a
possession receiver, so the team will look to Robinson. The young receiver has an opportunity to bond with Ryan
and become a go-to player for years to come. The passing offense may never be good enough to draft two Falcons'
receivers in a fantasy league; but if something clicks for this unit, Robinson will likely be at the root of it.
We have him with 59 receptions for 766 yards and five touchdowns.
Closest Game: St. Louis (Week 17) - The debate here is whether to highlight the first or the last week
because none of the games in the middle appear close. To better phrase it, which season is more important to the
Falcons right now, 2008 or 2009? It's probably 2009. The Falcons and Rams will both use Week 17 to build for the
next season.
Fantasy Notables: Matt Ryan (31) 1,733 yards, 10 TDs, 12 INTs; Chris Redman (36) 1,200 yards, 8 TDs, 6
INTs; Michael Turner (24) 1,404 total yards, 10 TDs; Jerious Norwood (35) 945 total yards, 9 TDs; Roddy White
(18) 72 receptions, 1,086 yards, 6 TDs; Ben Hartsock (46) 22 receptions, 228 yards, 2 TDs; Jason Elam (30) 36/36
XPs, 22/23 FGs
Projected 2008 Results:
| Week | Opponent | Win% | Avg Score |
|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | 49 | 25-25 |
| 2 | @Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31 | 20-32 |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 64 | 31-20 |
| 4 | @Carolina Panthers | 25 | 18-33 |
| 5 | @Green Bay Packers | 29 | 19-32 |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | 25 | 21-28 |
| 8 | @Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | 18-30 |
| 9 | @Oakland Raiders | 30 | 22-34 |
| 10 | New Orleans Saints | 20 | 22-29 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | 34 | 23-27 |
| 12 | Carolina Panthers | 18 | 19-28 |
| 13 | @San Diego Chargers | 17 | 14-33 |
| 14 | @New Orleans Saints | 33 | 17-29 |
| 15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29 | 20-26 |
| 16 | @Minnesota Vikings | 14 | 13-32 |
| 17 | St. Louis Rams | 48 | 25-25 |
Click
here to view a schedule of 2008 NFL previews and see others that have been posted.